PrawfsBlawg

Testing the Koufax Curse

Testing the Koufax Curse: How 18 Jewish Hitters, 18 Jewish Pitchers, and Rod Carew Performed on Yom Kippur has been published in the Baseball Research Journal.

Annual sports election predictors

I have thoughts on the election, but too jumbled to and disorganized to write in detail. I began with mixed feelings--thrilled that Biden had won, crushed that he will face a GOP Senate that will undermine his presidency at every turn (has any President gone a full term without appointing one judge?). I am concerned and (mostly) surprised that so many GOP officials have gotten on board and are amplifying Trump's nonsense. This allows the Senate to bolster its planned obstruction with a "stolen election" narrative--Biden is an illegitimate president not because people voted against Trump rather than for Biden, but because Biden "won" only because of fraud. The Senate thus does its patriotic duty by not cooperating with this illegitimate official until he can be voted out of office.

So let's look at something lighter: How sports predicted the election.

World Series Was Right: The NL's Dodgers won the World Series, which has meant a Democratic President in 18 of the past 29 elections, 13 of the 19 since the end of World War II, and 5 out of 6 since 2000.

Washington NFL Team Was Wrong: The Washington Professional Football team won its final home game before the election, beating the Dallas Cowboys 25-3 on Sunday, which has predicted the incumbent party retaining the White House in 17 of 21 elections (although wrong the last three). Ironically, Washington beat the team owned by Jerry Jones, Trump's closest friend and political ally among NFL owners and, stories suggest, a big reason why the league reacted as it did to Colin Kaepernick.

Harvard-Yale Will Not Play: The other presidential-election year they did not play was 1944, when a Democrat won.

Ending Sports Droughts: I wrote that this tends to favor Republicans. I am not sure how to categorize this year's election. The Dodgers won their first World Series in 32 years, but I am not sure if that qualifies as historically long when we have almost 120 years of World Series and this is an historic franchise winning its six World championship.

One City/Multiple Champions: The Series had one unique piece of intrigue--the winner would give its city a second 2020 championship. The Dodgers gave Los Angeles its second title, following the Lakers winning the NBA championship. Had the Rays won, they would have given Tampa its second title, following the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup. So this got me thinking about correlations between presidential elections and single-city/multiple-champions. Prior to this year, this had happened in seven presidential elections dating to 1927. The Republican prevailed in six (Hoover in 1928, Eisenhower in 1952, Eisenhower in 1956, H.W. Bush in 1988, W. in 2000,* and W. in 2004), the Democrat in one (Truman in 1948). Biden makes it GOP in 6 out of 8.

[*] The  Yankees won the World Series while the Jersey Devils won the Stanley Cup. Whether to count this depends on how we regard New Jersey sports teams. I leave that question for others.

Update on Jewish World Series

I erroneously wrote that this year's Rays-Dodgers World Series had one Jewish player--Dodgers OF/DH Joc Pederson. But I forgot about Rays lefty reliever Ryan Sherriff, the grandson of Shoah survivors. Sherriff saw his first action in Friday evening's Game 3, pitching one scoreless inning, walking one and striking out one. This is the seventh World Series in which both teams have at least one Jewish player, the third in the last four.

We came close to a different first--a Jewish pitcher facing a Jewish batter.* Sherriff pitched the seventh and went to the mound to begin the eighth, with Pederson leading off. But Pederson does not bat against lefties, so he was pulled for a righty pinch-hitter in the Dodgers' regular platoon. At which point Sherriff was pulled for a righty pitcher.

[*] The linked article notes that Ken Holtzman of the A's faced Steve Yeager of the Dodgers in Games One and Four of the 1974 World Series, with Yeager getting two hits in five at-bats. But Yeager converted to Judaism after his baseball career, so this did not count at the time.

World Series set

The Dodgers (best record in NL) against the Rays (best record in AL), for the first time since 2013.

There is one Jewish player in the Series--the Dodgers' Joc Pederson, who is the left-handed platoon DH. Pederson had a terrible season, although this Series gives him a chance to tie or pass Alex Bregman for the lead in WS home runs (Pederson has four, trailing Bregman by one). I must confess to rooting for the Braves in the NLCS, looking forward to the stories of a WS team with a Jewish ace left-handed pitcher.

Now that things are set, of course, all Democrats will be rooting for the Dodgers.

MLB MVP cancels Landis

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), which awards the MLB leage MVP awards, has removed the name of former commissioner Kennesaw Mountain Landis from the award, citing his history of racism and his actions in keeping baseball segregated.

As I wrote in my prior post, the narrative of Landis as affirmatively racist active opponent of integration has carried the day. A scholarly counter-narrative sprouted in the '00s that he was a man of his time who did not push the owners to sign African American players, but has been largely forgotten in this discussion--whether because it has been historically discredited or because it has lost the day.

A Jewish MLB post-season

No baseball on Yom Kippur 5781. But this is shaping up as one of the great Jewish MLB post-seasons. Ten of the 13 Jewish MLB players are in the post-season spread across eight teams (five NL, three AL). This includes four starting position players (Alex Bregman of Houston, Ryan Braun of Milwaukee, Joc Pederson of the Dodgers, and Rowdy Tellez of Toronto, who will miss the opening round with an injury); one starting pitcher (Max Fried of Atlanta); and three workhorse relief pitchers who can be expected to log some big innings in a format with no travel and thus no off-days.

Testing the Koufax Curse

In anticipation of the High Holy Days, the Forward has published a summary version of my longer study of Jewish players' and teams' performance on Yom Kippur.

Cancel culture as a circle of baseline hell

Thinking out loud.

Skip Bayless' comments on Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ("being quarterback of the Cowboys is too important a position for someone who struggles with mental-health issues, or at least not for someone who wants to talk about those issues") are so stupid that they are unworthy of a response. They are noise--an "inarticulate grunt or roar that, it seems fair to say, is most likely to be indulged in not to express any particular idea, but to antagonize others." They certainly are too stupid to have been spoken in a media outlet that purports to be a forum for serious discussion, even of sports. And they suggest that Bayless is an unserious person.

Will Bayless be "canceled"--fired, suspended, or whatever? Fox Sports issued a statement disagreeing with Bayless' comments and saying they had "addressed" the issues with Bayless. I expect that to end it--no cancellation. And I do not expect Bayless to apologize or otherwise address it.

The separate question is whether Bayless should be cancelled, to which critics of "cancel culture" will say no. But I wonder if those who oppose cancelling someone for bad speech are trapped in a form of Rick Hills' baseline hell-the inability to establish a neutral baseline from which to analyze a problem. I presume that even the strongest critic of cancel culture would agree with the following:

    1) A private media organization could decide that it should not hire Bayless because it does not like his views on mental illness.

    2) A private media organization is not obligated to pay money and provide a platform to any person, so it can decide who it does or does not wish to give a platform based on the content of his speech and whether the organization shares, agrees with, and wishes to promote those views.

    3) The decision not to hire Bayless because of his absurd views would be a valid exercise of the organization's expressive rights--a decision about with what people and views it wishes to associate.

If the above is true, then firing Bayless should not raise different issues or problems. Either is an exercise of the media organization's judgment as to the views it wants to promote and with which it wants to associate. It would require a distinction between beginning and continuing--that ending a relationship because of disagreement with speech is different than declining to begin a relationship because of disagreement with speech. But that is a baseline problem--it rests on a belief that the starting point (on the platform or not on the platform) makes a substantive difference.

Similarly, sponsors could make the three decisions described above as to whether to sponsor Bayless' program and decline to buy time, from which it follows they could pull their money after-the-fact. To say otherwise requires the same distinction-without-a-difference between ending a relationship because of speech and declining to start that relationship because of speech.

I also wonder if we can distinguish cancelling Bayless for his speech from cancelling the Chicks or Mel Gibson or a professor for his speech. With the latter, we are cancelling from a primary role (making movies, making music, teaching classes) because of their out-of-role speech. But cancelling Bayless would reject him from his primary role because of his behavior in that primary role. Does that make a difference?

Infield flies, triple plays, and multiple outs on the same guy

A crazy play in Monday's Twins-White Sox game (video in story; H/T: Allan Erbsen at Minnesota): The Twins attempted to turn a triple play off a dropped "humpback liner," but messed up and ended up with one out.

White Sox have bases loaded, none out. Batter hits a low-flying flare behind second. The second baseman drops the ball (perhaps intentionally ) and has it scramble away from him. The runner on second starts to go, then retreats to second. The second baseman flips it to the shortstop covering second who catches the ball while standing on the base. He then throws to the first baseman, who tags the runner on first retreating, while the batter stands on first. The first baseman throws to second, where the runner there beats the tag. They then thrown to home plate (after a discussion), where nothing is happening.

After umpire consultation, the result: The batter is safe at first. The runner on first was out, the remaining runners are safe where they were. One out, bases still loaded. What happened after jump.

No infield fly. The ball was not hit high enough (it lacked the necessary parabolic arc). This is the tricky play that umpires and players struggle with. I would guess the runner on second retreated on a belief that the rule had been invoked or the ball was going to be caught. But it clearly had not been. One announcer started talking about this, without acknowledging how low the ball was hit.

It appears the Twins second baseman intentionally dropped the ball, hoping to start a double (perhaps triple) play. Or he closed his glove too quickly, which happens. But this looks pretty intentional. If the umpires called that, the batter would have been out and the play dead. This play illustrates the need for the rule--the runner on second retreated expecting the ball to be caught and was hung out to dry when the ball was not caught. This is a pure anti-deception rule. The other announcer picked up on this.

Having gotten away with the intentional drop, the second baseman's plans were foiled because he was unable to play the drop cleanly off the ground and it skittered away from him. This gave the batter sufficient time to reach first.

The Twins still could have gotten a double play around second base had the shortstop covering caught the ball and tagged the runner before stepping on the base. Once the ball fell (and intentional drop not called), the runner on second was forced to advance and retreating to second was not an option; he could have been tagged out even if standing on second base, which no longer was a "safe" base for him. But by stepping on the base first, the infielder put out the runner who had been on first; the runner on second was not forced to advance and could return safely to his current base.

The first baseman erred by tagging out the runner on first attempting to retreat, who already was put out on the force at second. In essence, the Twins put out the same baserunner twice--kind of a double play, I suppose. But the first baseman had no other option, since the batter had reached first safely.

Presuming the second baseman dropped the ball intentionally, he might have been looking for a triple play in two ways.

    1) Throw to the shortstop to tag the runner at second, then tag the base, then relay to first to get the batter; had he played the ball cleanly off the ground, this might have worked.

    2) Throw home to force out the runner on third, then throw to third to force the runner on second, then throw to second (shortstop covering) to force the runner on first. This would have been a 4-2-5-6 triple play, which the author of the linked MLB article says happened once, in 1893 between the Brooklyn Grooms and an older version of the Baltimore Orioles. This also would have been a clear option, since the play was right in front of the fielder when he picked up the ball.

Is it any wonder lawyers love baseball?

Kennesaw Mountain Landis and the Monument Moment (Updated)

Northwestern-Pritzker School of Law (where, full disclosure, I attended law school) displays a portrait of Kennesaw Mountain Landis, a Northwestern grad, former federal judge, and, of course, long-serving first baseball commissioner. As monuments began falling and law schools contemplated their anti-racist steps, I wondered whether that portrait would come down. Now come reports that a move is afoot among former baseball MVPs (black and white) to have Landis' name and image removed from those awards. Update: The Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA), which presents, the MVP awards, announced they will discuss the issue.

The standard history is that Landis actively opposed integration in his 20+ years as commissioner, during which no team signed an African-American player (Landis died in 1944; Jackie Robinson signed with the Dodgers in 1946 and made his MLB debut on April 15, 1947). That is the story Robinson told and was reflected in the authoritative Robinson biography and in a 2016 Ken Burns documentary about Robinson. MLB historian John Thorn presents that history as canon in the above-linked articles, describing Landis as "pretty damn near Confederate" with a history of documented racism.

That standard view had been questioned over the past two decades, through an award-winning 1998 Landis biography and a 2009 article in SABR's Baseball Research Journal. Neither study found evidence of Landis saying or doing anything racist, holding racist views (at least relative to the times), or preventing or even dissuading owners from signing African-American players. Landis made two public statements--in 1942 and 1943--that MLB had no formal or informal rule prohibiting signing African-American players and that he did not and would not oppose any owners who signed an African-American player. MLB owners and executives maintained segregation, not Landis. Landis did not advocate integration, as opposed to announcing a lack of opposition, and it does not appear that he attempted to force, cajole, lobby, or convince owners to integrate. (Whether he could have done so and whether his failure to do so destroys his legacy depends on whether Landis enjoyed unique commissioner powers or whether, like other commissioners, he worked for the owners).

I do not know whether the counter-narrative has been discredited as erroneous. The linked stories quote Thorn, but do not mention the counter or acknowledge that historical sources disagree, although this one does. I have not seen interviews with Landis' biographer or other critics on the subject.

But it may not matter. Part of the current reckoning is that silence in the face of racism is a form of action perpetuating that racism. Sitting by not only does not promote progress, it adds to the problem. By placing the onus on the owners to sign African-American players knowing they would not, the argument goes, Landis ensured that segregation endured. And thus he loses any claim to a continued place of honor in the game of baseball (or on the walls of a law school).

Is that how it should be? That seems to be the point that MLB and NUPLS must resolve with Landis.

Testing the Koufax Curse

Last fall, I wrote about three Jewish players (Alex Bregman, Max Fried, and Joc Pederson) playing Division Series games on Yom Kippur, then offered tentative responses to the question posed by Armin Rosen of Tablet about why we focus so much on playing on Yom Kippur and no other days. Rosen also jokingly suggested that 2019 demonstrated the work of the Koufax Curse befalling players who fail to follow in Koufax's Yom Kippur footsteps.

In a draft paper on SSRN, I test the Koufax Curse by developing an explanation for our obsession with playing on Yom Kippur and by examining career statistics in Yom Kippur games by eighteen Jewish players, plus Rod Carew. This has been a fun piece to write. The abstract is after the jump. It emains a work in progress, and I welcome feedback.

October 8-9, 2019, the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, marked a unique moment in the history of baseball and American Judaism. Three Major League post-season games began between sundown Tuesday and sundown Wednesday. One team in each game featured a Jewish player as a star or significant contributor. Each Jewish player appeared in the game. Each team lost. One journalist labeled this result the "Koufax Curse" -- the curse of the Jewish player who plays on Yom Kippur, rather than following in the footsteps of Hall-of-Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax, who did not pitch Game One of the 1965 World Series when it fell on the holy day.

This paper empirically tests the Koufax Curse. Looking at 18 Jewish Major Leaguers since 1966 (the year after Koufax's career-defining game), the paper charts how the players and their teams performed in games played during any part of Yom Kippur. It also examines statistics for Rod Carew, the Hall-of-Famer who is not Jewish but enjoys a unique familial and cultural connection to Judaism. From this, we can measure whether players or teams are haunted by the Koufax Curse. And whether Yom Kippur 5780 was an anomaly or reflects a broader trend.

 

Greenberg, Koufax, and Carew

Rod Carew occupies a strange place in the discussion of Jewish athletes. He was famously named as a Jew in Adam Sandler's Chanukkah Song I, based on stories from the late -'70s and early-'80s reporting that he converted or intended to convert. And there was this 1977 Time Magazine cover, in which he wears a chai around his neck (he wore it during games. But although he was married to a Jewish woman during his playing career and raised three Jewish daughters, Carew never converted. And he is divorced from the woman to whom he was married during his career; his current wife is Christian.

Nevertheless, based on early research I have been conducting into old box scores, it appears Carew avoided playing on Yom Kippur. He did not play on Yom Kippur 1971 (5732), Kol Nidre 1977 (5738), Kol Nidre 1980 (5741) (and he did not enter the following evening game until the 9th inning), Kol Nidre 1983 (5744), or Kol Nidre 1985 (5746).

I found several newspaper stories discussing this. In 1982, he played in a late-afternoon game before Kol Nidre, reportedly with plans to leave early if the game ran past 8 p.m. In 1977 (when Carew hit .388 and flirted with .400), newspaper stories conflicted about whether he missed a Kol Nidre road game to return home for treatment on his arm, whether it was planned for the Holy Day, or whether he planned it but used the arm as an excuse; either way, he did not play.

While not playing because of the Holy Day was discussed in wire-service stories in several seasons, this did not make national news. What could or did make national news 40 years ago was different. These seem to have been low-leverage games--never in the World Series or playoffs, never games in the heat of a close pennant race.

We may need to begin speaking of Carew in the same breath as Greenberg, Koufax, and (more recently) Shawn Green.

Elam Ending and the NBA

The Elam Ending is an alternative format for the end of basketball games, designed to eliminate late-game fouling by the trailing team. The basic idea is that the game clock stops in the final 3 minutes, then the teams play to a target score (+ some number from the leading team's score at the 3:00 mark).

Sunday's NBA All-Star Game used a modified version--playing the Fourth Quarter without a game clock with a target score of +24 from the leading team (the 24 in honor of Kobe Bryant). The format was a huge hit, drawing raves from players, NBA officials, and the media. ESPN's Zach Lowe interviews Elam (now a professor of educational leadership at Ball State) about the game, the system, and what happens next.

I have never minded intentional fouling and I do not believe it makes the game unwatchable. But Elam's argument focuses not on aesthetics but on strategic success-fouling generally does not work, both because leading teams make enough free throws and the lapsing game clock forces trailing teams to rush shots. This format, in theory, allows both teams to run their regular offenses without the game-clock pressure. Elam said his format enables more comebacks (as seen in its use in The Basketball Tournament in 2017, '18, and '19).

Caminker & Chemerinsky on Pete Rose, MLB, and the Hall of Fame

Evan Caminker and Erwin Chemerinsky argue in The Times that Major League Baseball should reinstate Pete Rose, making him eligible for election and induction into the Hall of Fame.

Steve Lubet (Faculty Lounge) hits the glaring defect in their argument--they minimize the severity of Rose's misdeeds and their effects on the game by emphasizing that Rose never bet against the Reds, without acknowledging the downstream effects of his gambling choices. I do not have much to add to his argument.

Caminker and Chemerinsky also minimize Rose's misdeeds by comparing them with revelations about sign-stealing and PED use, maximizing the evils of those practice. But reasonable minds differ about sign-stealing and PED use. Many (including many who played the game) believe sign-stealing to be a well-worn part of the game and the ongoing search for a competitive advance and PED use to be the same as other scientific advances that improve performance. No one (I do not think) argues that gambling on baseball is OK.

The timing is interesting because President Trump last week called for TrumpRose* to be in the Hall, for many of the reasons Caminker & Chemerinsky present. Although they do not mention Trump, they agree on something.

[*] Freudian slip. Trump probably does believe he should be in the Hall of Fame.

It might be tempting to view this question through the controversy over Trump's many actual and threatened pardons, which C&C (especially Chemerinsky) have criticized. But that is not the right way to look at this. Rose was punished with a lifetime ban that included the opportunity to petition for reinstatement, with a presumption that any petition would be considered in good faith, if not with a presumption in favor reinstatement (and likely the opposite). Rose accepted the same punishment imposed on Shoeless Joe Jackson, Buck Weaver, and the rest of the Black Sox, several of whom petitioned (unsuccessfully) over the years. Caminker and Chemerinksy thus do not call for a pardon, but for the exercise of the discretion built into the sanction. They make arguments similar to those of  several Hall of Famers (including, I believe, Ted Williams) in the late-'80s/early '90s in favor of Jackson's reinstatement, following release of Field of Dreams.

Unsurprisingly, C&C do get the procedure right. They do not argue for Rose to be placed in the Hall. They urge MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred to reinstate Rose on the grounds that Rose has served the time for his crime against the game. Reinstatement would allow Hall voters to elect him, without requiring it; voters could decline to elect him as they have with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Mark McGwire, believing that the shadow of misconduct precludes election. Ironically, the rule that formally prevents Rose's (but not the others') election was codified in 1990, in response to the tide of pro-Jackson sentiment.  On the other hand, as a commenter on Steve's post points out, the Hall could repeal its rule and elect Rose even if he remains banned by MLB. 

Uh, oh

Following the 2016 election, I identified breaking championship droughts as a random sports predictor that foretold Republican electoral success. If so, Democrats (including me) should be nervous this morning, as the Kansas City (Missouri) Chiefs won their first Super Bowl in 50 years--which I think qualifies as a long, if not quite as legendary, sports drought. This follows a number of other droughts that ended in 2019--St. Louis Blues win first Stanley Cup in 52-year history; Washington Mystics win first WNBA title; Washington Nationals win first World Series for D.C. since 1924 and first World Series in the 50-year history of the Expos/Nationals franchise.

Of course, we do have one counter-example in which end-of-drought coincided with Democratic success--the 2018 mid-terms followed the Washington Capitols' first Stanley Cup in a then-44-year history.

Limiting rules in football

On Saturday, the Tennessee Titans ran almost two minutes off the clock without a snap in their Wildcard Round win over the New England Patriots, exploiting a glitch in the rules that calls for a limiting rule.

Lining to punt on 4th down with the game clock running, the Titans took a delay-of-game penalty; the clock restarted when the ball was placed after the 5-yard walk-off. The Titans then false-started; the clock restarted when the ball was placed. The Patriots then jumped offside; the clock restarted when the ball was replaced. Finally, the Titans punted.

When a team commits a foul and the penalty yardage is walked off, the clock proceeds as it would have had there been no infraction--if the clock would have stopped, it restarts on the snap; if the clock would have run, it restarts once the ball is replaced. Inside of 5 minutes remaining in the second half, the clock restarts on the snap. As I explain here and here, the second rule is designed to inject excitement by preventing leading teams from wasting time and forcing them to run more plays, from the point in the game in which the incentive to waste time begins.

This game reveals three things:

First, although I did not think of it this way when writing the book (but should have), the second rule qualifies as a limiting rule addressing a cost-benefit imbalance under the default rule, akin to the Infield Fly Rule. The offense is acting contrary to expectation (taking a penalty); the time benefits it gains are much overwhelmingly greater than the yardage costs (and vice versa for the trailing defensive team);  the defense cannot do anything to stop the offense from intentionally committing pre-snap fouls; and a leading team has a perverse incentive to try this.

Second, the rules attempt to address the perverse incentives with two different limiting rules. Two successive delay penalties constitute unsportsmanlike conduct, a 15-yard infraction. This is why the second foul was not another delay, but false start. And a team cannot commit multiple fouls on the same down to "manipulate the game clock;" the penalty is 15 yards, time back on the clock, and the clock restarting on the snap. This rule is why, after the second penalty, the Titans were ready to punt. The third play came because the Patriots committed an infraction that gave the Titans extra time; the Titans cannot be blamed for the opponent's violation. But these two rules should be sufficient, unless officials are reluctant to find clock manipulation off one or even two false starts.

Third, the incentive for a leading team to waste time begins earlier than the 5-minute mark. It is not clear where it begins--that probably depends on score and location on the field. The only solution may be to change the default rule and always have the clock start on the snap following a penalty. That will necessitate other limiting rules involving clock run-offs to eliminate the perverse incentive for trailing teams to commit their own intentional fouls.

Marvin Miller and the Hall of Fame (Updated)

Marvin Miller--the first executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association and the creative force behind the modern economics of baseball and all professional sports--was elected to the Hall of Fame yesterday. The election comes seven years after Miller's death. And, although I did not know this, against his express wishes.

Miller was passed over several times by various committees between 2003 and 2010, likely because the powers-that-be wanted to deny Miller the honor, at least while he was alive. In 2008, Miller, askedtthe Baseball Writers Association of America, the main selection body, not to nominate him again; he declared himself "unwilling to contemplate one more rigged veterans committee whose members are handpicked to reach a particular outcome while offering the pretense of a democratic vote. It is an insult to baseball fans, historians, sports writers and especially to those baseball players." Miller was no doubt especially angry that in 2007, former commissioner Bowie Kuhn, Miller's chief antagonist, was elected just before his death. Despite the request, Miller was nominated in 2010, then posthumously in 2014, 2018, and this year.

There is an interesting debate about how the Hall should handle those wishes. On one hand, it is a museum designed to tell the history of baseball and to recognize those who made the game--that history cannot be told without Miller. On the other hand, the Hall of plaques does more than tell a story; it singles people for a unique honor, an honor that should be bestowed only if both parties wish. Miller's children have made clear they will not attend and accept induction in their father's place. And it is hard not see the election as one final power play against Miller--selecting him against his wishes, but when he could no longer decline appear and make his own case.

Speaking of Miller and Kuhn, Slate's Hang Up and Listen uses Miller's election as an excuse to parse Flood v. Kuhn, especially the bizarre Part I in which Justice Blackmun rattles off a laundry list of historic players from a bygone era. Several tidbits on this.

That part of the opinion was written for only three of the five Justices who formed the majority (Blackmun, Stewart, and Rehnquist). Chief Justice Burger and Justice White refused to join that part of the opinion, White expressly because an paean to baseball and a recitation of players had nothing to do with the case and no place in a judicial opinion.

The list includes only two African-American players--Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella. And they are from a different baseball era. The white players all played in the 1900s-1930s. Based on a quick glance, it appears no one on the list began his career beyond the early '30s. The latest player is Hank Greenberg, who retired in 1948, but debuted in 1930. Robinson and Campanella played from the late-'40s to mid-'50s. Blackmun's original draft did not include any African-Americans; he added Robinson, Campanella, and Satchel Paige at the insistence/request of Justice Marshall. But Blackmun could not (or did not bother to) match anyone to the era that is the focus of the rest of the list, although several historically great Negro League players (e.g., Josh Gibson) were contemporaries of Ruth, Gehrig, etc.  Marshall then dissented in the case, so he did not join the list at all.

Finally, there was some horse-trading among the Justices about who to include. That still does not explain how Moe Berg made the list.

Protesting Harvard-Yale (Updated)

The second half of the Harvard-Yale Game was delayed for 48 minutes when students from both schools rushed the field to stage a climate-change protest calling for both institutions to divest from oil, gas, and other energy investments. Many protesters eventually left the field, while the last stragglers were escorted by police; I do not know how many students were arrested. [Update: This report says 42 students were charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct]

Just to be clear (and putting state action to one side);

• The students should have been untouchable had the protest remained in the stands. While climate change has nothing to do with football, chanting and displaying signs about divestment is not inconsistent with cheering and displaying signs at a football game.

• The students were properly subject to arrest (reports suggest some wanted to be arrested). While engaging in expressive behavior, they did so in a place they had no right to be. This is civil disobedience--breaking the law, and accepting the consequences, to draw attention to the cause and the protest.

• This demonstrates why politics and speech are inseparable from sports. No one would be talking about a few hundred Ivy League students protesting climate change in the middle of campus. The protest now is a national story. And it is part of the story of a great football game--Yale won 50-43 in Double-OT, staging a late-game comeback, clinching the victory in darkness (no lights at the Yale Bowl), and claiming a share of the Ivy League title.

Baseball and politics, again

The Astros win in Game 3 last night means there will be a Game 5 in Washington Sunday night, which means a game attended by President Trump (although not to throw out the first pitch).

Question to watch: Will fans boo trump, chant "impeachment" or "Ukraine," or otherwise criticize the President? And how will MLB and the Nationals respond?

Update: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred golfed last week with Trump and Lindsey Graham. I think I have my answer to the third question.

All apologies

A storm is brewing surrounding the Houston Astros and their assistant GM, Brandon Taubman. According to a Sports Illustrated report, during the post-game lockerroom celebration on Saturday night, Taubman yelled (several times) towards three female journalists "Thank God we got Osuna! I'm so fucking glad we got Osuna!" This is in reference to reliever Roberto Osuna, who served a 75-game suspension for domestic violence, before signing with Houston this year (the charges, in Toronto, were dropped when the Mexican-national accuser refused to travel to Canada to testify).

The Astros say the story is misleading, that Taubman was supporting the player during a "difficult time" and responding to the "game situation that just occurred," and that the remarks were not directed at any persons. The second point seems odd, because the game situation was that Osuna had blown a two-run lead in the top of the ninth inning, only to have the Astros win it in the bottom of the ninth; it seems odd to shout about being glad to have signed a player who almost gave a clinching game away. MLB announced an investigation into the incident.

Taubman issued the following through the Astros:

This past Saturday, during our clubhouse celebration, I used inappropriate language for which I am deeply sorry and embarrassed . . .In retrospect, I realize that my comments were unprofessional and inappropriate. My overexuberance in support of a player has been misinterpreted as a demonstration of a regressive attitude about an important social issue. Those that know me know that I am a progressive and charitable member of the community, and a loving and committed husband and father. I hope that those who do not know me understand that the Sports Illustrated article does not reflect who I am or my values. I am sorry if anyone was offended by my actions.

Yom Kippur, at which we think hard about apologies and what it means to apologize, has passed. But let's play with this.

What is Taubman apologizing for and how should we understand that apology? He is "deeply sorry" for his "inappropriate language," comments that were "unprofessional and inappropriate." But that is silly--profanity is quite common in sports and the three women, experienced sports reports, are used to hearing such language; it is not as if he swore at them. He apologized "if anyone was offended," the common non-apology-apology. Finally, he claims his statements have been misinterpreted. If so, how does that affect his apology. Should he have to apologize if he does not believe he did anything wrong? Do/must /should we apologize for someone else's misinterpretation or misunderstanding of our actions, actions that we believe were not wrong or harmful but that someone else has taken as wrong due to their mistake?

Update I: Marjorie Ingall of Tablet Magazine runs SorryWatch, a blog that analyzes apologies. She is not pleased.

Update II: The Astros GM Jeff Luhnow defended Taubman in a way that highlights my original question. Luhnow says we will never know the intent behind Taubman's inappropriate comments. Luhnow noted that Taubman apologized for his "inappropriate behavior" and for doing something that he regrets. But no one will say what that is--what was inappropriate and what does he regret? They are not helping themselves.

Why Yom Kippur

Writing on the lack of success enjoyed by Jewish players and their teams on the recent Yom Kippur, Tablet's Armin Rosen hints at an interesting question: Why the focus among American Jewry for players playing or not playing on Yom Kippur (and, to a lesser extent, Rosh Hashanah). Rosen points out that we do not care or expect players not to play on Shabbat, which is arguably more important within the faith.

One answer is the impracticality of a player not playing every Shabbat. The MLB regular season is built around series of 3-4 games, including series every weekend, Friday through Sunday. Except for the Cubs, virtually every Friday game is at night and some (although a smaller percentage) Saturday games are played during the day. Figuring four Fridays and Saturday per month in a six-month season, a Jewish player who would not play on Shabbat would miss 24--48 games. No player could do that and no team could afford to employ that player. Especially not the Cubs, who play most of their Friday and Saturday games during the day.

A second answer is this matches the Jewish calendar for many American Jews. Most do not observe Shabbat. Many who attend Shabbat services otherwise treat it as an ordinary weekend day--I attend morning services, but the rest of the day I might hold a make-up class, coach my daughter's basketball team (in a temple-sponsored league, no less), or spend the day writing. Shabbat is not, for most, a break in the calendar. Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur are--schools are closed, many Jews do not work, and those are the two days on which a substantial portion of Jews go to synagogue. The logical leap--if I take this day off, so would a Jewish baseball player. Then it comes to the supposed Halachic difference between the joyous Rosh Hashanah and the somber Yom Kippur.

So fear not, Alex Bregman. Simcha Torah will be over before Game 1 begins tomorrow night.

More post-season infield flies

Twice in one night.

I missed this USA Today piece by Andrew Joseph arguing that the Nationals were lucky in their clinching Game 4 of the NLCS that infield fly was not declared on a run-scoring uncaught bases-loaded blooper to right field that scored the first of four first-inning runs. Joseph compares this with the infamous call in the 2012 NL Wild Card, arguing that the umpire was right not to invoke here, which shows why the 2012 call was wrong (he calls it a "fiasco"). (He provides video links to both plays, so watch for yourself).

I do not understand why the Nationals should be "thankful" the rule was not invoked. They scored one run on the play; that run scores anyway, since baserunners can run at their own risk when infield fly is declared. They scored three more runs in the inning subsequent to the fly ball. Two came on consecutive hits by the two batters following the fly ball, runs which would have scored anyway. The second out of the inning came on a sacrifice bunt by the pitcher, after which the fourth run scored on a hit. The Nats would not have had the pitcher bunt with two outs (as would have been the case had the rule been invoked, making the batter out for the second out of the inning). But who knows what would have happened in that at-bat were the circumstances different--maybe the pitcher is put out and the fourth run does not score, maybe the pitcher manages to get a hit. For that matter, the entire inning could have gone in any direction. The point is that it is not so obvious that an infield fly call would have killed the Nats' rally.

The comparison to the 2012 call is inapt, because the plays are different in significant respects. This year's ball was hit to right field while the 2012 ball was hit to left. Umpires are less likely to invoke on a ball to right field, especially near the foul line, because the first throw to start a double play would be so long that no double play is possible (thus the rule's purpose of preventing a double play by disincentivizing the intentional non-catch is not implicated); this was the area with the fewest infield-fly calls in every season I watched. The Cards' second-baseman also tried to catch the ball sideways, facing the foul line, body language that does not indicate that he was "settled comfortably" under the ball, which is what umpires look for. In 2012, the Cards' shortstop was facing the infield with his hands up, body language indicating he was settled and waiting for the ball to come down and calling his teammates off. The 2012 play owed, in part, to the foul-line ump's perspective--because of his position and perspective, the ump believed the ball was closer to the infield than it was, such that a double play might have been possible (thus the rule's purpose implicated). Or perhaps the ump on the 2012 call was a textualist (thus the call was indisputably correct), while the ump in 2019 was a purposivist (so the unlikelihood of the double play rendered the rule inapplicable).

Anyway, I thought we were past the point that this 2012 call was regarded as the Citizens United of baseball calls.

The unknown nuances of the Infield Fly Rule

A play in the top of the 8th inning of ALCS Game 4 may have illustrated a finer point of the Infield Fly Rule. It also might have made the announcers' heads explode, had they been paying attention.

The Astros had bases-loaded/1-out when the batter hit a pop-up to the right of second base, about ten beyond the infield dirt. The Yankees shortstop, playing behind second, drifted back and to his left. He turned so he was facing the infield while backpedaling and waving his arms. At the last instance, he was called off by the charging right-fielder, who caught the ball about 15-20 onto the grass.

I do not know whether the umpires declared infield fly. The video does not show the second-base (and nearest) umpire and the announcers did not say anything (such as "infield fly rule is in effect", as they did on an obvious ball near the mound in the top of the 9th). It appears it should have been called: The second baseman was in position to catch the ball and while backpedaling a bit, he was moving less and less far than the infielders on dozens of plays I watched over seven seasons on which the rule was invoked. He was trying to wave-off his teammates. And the ball was close enough to the infield and to second base that a double play might have been in the offing without the rule.

Had the rule been obviously invoked, it would have illustrated an important principle under the rule: It can be invoked when an outfielder handles the ball, if the ball could as easily have been handled by an infielder. Which was the case here--the second baseman looked ready to catch the ball, until the right-fielder called him off and made the catch. And it would have sparked a fascinating (and likely ill-informed) discussion among the announcers about the rule, as they struggled to figure out and explain how IFR was invoked on a ball caught by an outfielder. Too bad; it would have been a fun discussion.

LeBron James: Shut up and make trades

You would think that LeBron James--who has used his expressive platform more than most mega-stars and has been told on more than one occasion to "shut up and dribble"--would support an NBA colleague attacked for doing the same. You would be wrong.

Everything LeBron said could have been (and has been) applied to his statements on subjects such as Black Lives Matter, police violence, the killing of Eric Garner, etc.: 1) Morey was not educated on the subject (Taiwan Hong Kong) about which he spoke (while admitting it was just his "belief" that Morey was not informed); 2) people could be harmed as a result of his speech; 3) bad things can happen from the exercise of free speech and you cannot think only of yourself when deciding what to say, on or off Twitter. Ironically,the Morey tweet was supported people protesting in favor of democracy and who were subject to police violence--the very ideas James purport and support in his speech.

When is it ok to miss an important ballgame?

On the heels of three Jewish players playing in late or elimination games on or after Yom Kippur comes a new controversy: Nationals reliever Daniel Hudson missed Game 1 of the NLCS (where he was not needed, as starter Anibal Sanchez took a no-hitter into the 8th inning) to be in the hospital for the birth of his daughter. Critics came out in force, not only from the Twitter cesspool, but from mainstream-media types and from former Marlins exec David Samson. Teammate Sean Doolittle defended Hudson with what should be the final word on the subject: "If your reaction to someone having a baby is anything other than, ‘Congratulations, I hope everybody’s healthy,’ you’re an asshole."

The criticism of players missing games in baseball and other sports to be there for childbirth (which my colleague Kerri Stone wrote about a few years ago) is fairly constant, at least if the game is important enough. So what would happen if a Jewish player did miss an important post-season game because of Yom Kippur? We assume that the player would be honored as Sandy Koufax and Hank Greenberg were (not only by Jews, but by all fans), but perhaps not. It is easy to reframe ESPN's Jay Greeson's tweet as "But if you're making $5.5 mil a year and your team needs you to close in the NLCS, well, I'd say go get 'em mom Rabbi."

This could go either of two ways.

Sports people are both religious and misogynist. So the trolls might forgive a player for missing for religious reasons (even a non-Christian religion) but not a player for doing the "woman's work" of being present for childbirth. Both Samson and Greeson qualified their stupidity by saying that if there were health problems with either Hudson's wife or the baby, it would be ok to miss; otherwise, this was a woman's job (never mind that childbirth, by induction, is a major medical procedure) and no reason for Hudson to be present.* Baseball also is steeped (some say stuck) in history. Koufax sat for Yom Kippur in 1965 and Greenberg sat in 1934 (and other years), so it would be consistent with that history for Bregman or Fried or Pederson to sit in 2019. But no one in 1965 or 1934 missed games to be with their wives during childbirth, so it is unique and new and unprecedented and scary and immasculating for anyone to do it in 2019.

[*] No one offered even a nod to a different need--taking care of his two extant children while their mother is in the hospital.

On the other hand, Greeson's touchstone was that Hudson's $ 5.5 million annual salary imposed an obligation to team uber alles. There is no reason to believe that obligation supersedes a player's commitment to his wife and children but not his commitment to his religious values. Or I would love to see Greeson and others twiste themselves into knots distinguishing the two. That we are living in a time of increased anti-Semitism does not help, especially on Twitter.

None of the current Jewish Major Leaguers appears especially observant (neither were Greenberg or Koufax) and none has shown an inclination to sit on the holy days. That is, of course, their choice. But if one did, I increasingly wonder what the public reaction would be.

Sports and Speech

I am watching the NBA/China controversy play out, as it has evolved from a simple tweet into a full-blown illustration of the role of speech within sports. From a free-speech (not to be confused with First Amendment, because I doubt there is state action to be found here, except by China) standpoint, the NBA and its teams have done everything wrong. From Commissioner Adam Silver trying to have it both ways ("we respect free speech, but what Morey did was wrong"), to teams removing fans from arenas, to a team PR person cutting off media questioning of players. The NBA apologized for the last one and said the team should not do that. But if the league is going through these contortions to cut-off speech, it should be no surprise that teams would follow suit in their own clumsy ways.

The interesting question is how far into the regular season this bleeds. China may form a unique chapter in the book on the subject of sport-and-speech I someday hope to write.

Playing on Yom Kippur

Journalist Yair Rosenberg beat me to this, but: Three teams in MLB's post-season have a Jewish player, each Jewish player played either Tuesday night or Wednesday, and each team lost. Alex Bregman of the Astros played on Tuesday night and the Astros lost Game to even the series. Max Fried of the Braves pitched on Wednesday and gave up four runs in an inning-and-change as the Braves lost Game 5 and the series. Joc Pederson of the Dodgers played Wednesday evening in the Dodgers loss of Game 5 and the series.

So is the lesson do not play on Yom Kippur? It may not help. The Dodgers famously lost Game 1 of the 1965 World Series as Koufax sat, with Don Drysdale getting shelled and someone (stories vary as to who) joking that Dodgers manager Walter Alston wished Drysdale were Jewish.

One interesting question: In the era in which all post-season games are at night, what does it mean to play "on Yom Kippur"? Bregman played on Kol Nidre. But many (most) non-Jewish fans probably are not aware that the holy day begins at sundown; so had Bregman not played on Tuesday evening "because it is Yom Kipper," many people might have been confused. On the other hand, the Dodgers game began at 6:45 PDT, past the time that many Jews had broken their fasts (my Reform temple's break fast was at 6:30), so he was not playing on Yom Kippur, which also might have confused people.

Meanwhile, the Astros and Rays play Game 5 tonight. If the Astros lose, it will be our first all-Goyishe LCS and World Series in several years. The new is not all bad; win or lose, Bregman might win American League MVP, making him the fourth Jewish player to win an MVP (joining Greenberg, Koufax, and Al Rosen).

Update: The Phillies fired manager Gabe Kapler. Well, we ask who shall perish by fire.

[Further Update: The Astros won, with Bregman breaking the game open with a 2-run double in the first.]

Protest (and be punished) like it's 1968

At the Pan Am Games, fencer Race Imboden knelt on the gold-medal podium during the anthem and hammer-thrower Gwen Berry raised her first. Both face sanction, because not much has changed since 1968. The U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee offered this internal contradiction: "Every athlete competing at the 2019 Pan-American Games commits to terms of eligibility, including to refrain from demonstrations that are political in nature,” although "[w]e respect his rights to express his viewpoints.” No, you clearly do not respect his rights to express his viewpoints when those viewpoints are political in nature. Because standing at attention during a national anthem while playing "for your country" is never political.

The USOPC (did not realize the "P" had been added) is not bound by the First Amendment and can restrict athlete speech however it wishes. But do not pretend that you also respect the athletes' rights to express their views.

One inning, three runs, three true outcomes (non-law)

Thinking about baseball today, so that prompts this non-law post.

Baseball analysts emphasize the concept of "three true outcomes"--walk, home run, or strikeout. These are the possible results of a pitcher/batter confrontation that reflect the "true" results of that one-on-one encounter, unaffected by any other players. The focus on these outcomes drives recent concerns for style and pace of play. Batters look to hit home runs, are less willing to offer at pitches out of the strike zone, and accept increased strikeouts as a cost. All three true outcomes are up, creating a slower and (some believe) less exciting game.

In Saturday night's Braves-Marlins game, the Braves scored three runs in an inning featuring nothing but those three true outcomes. The inning went: Walk, Strikeout, Walk, Strikeout, 3-run HR, Walk, Walk, [pitching change], Strikeout. No fielder other than the pitcher and catcher was involved in any play. No baserunner was at risk of being put-out on the basepaths.

I have never seen anything like that.

Stupid rules, baseball edition

The independent Atlantic League (which used a Doppler radar plate umpire for its All Star game) has, with MLB support, implemented a new rule: Any pitch not "caught in flight" is a live ball, allowing a batter to run to first base or to be put out. People have described it as "stealing first," although that is not quite accurate. It happened in a game on Saturday. Others have described it as an extension of the uncaught third-strike rule, under which a batter becomes a runner if a third strike is not caught. I am not sure what the point is. I guess it adds excitement by offering a new way to reach first base, away from the home runs and walks that are increasing (and, some argue, making the game boring).

This seems stupid for several reasons.

The rule represents a departure from the game's basic structures. There are, famously, 7 (or 8, depending on how you count defensive interference) ways for a batter to reach base (unless you fine-grain it into 23). However you count, all are based on the batter putting the ball in play and the defense having to catch the ball to complete an out, or on the pitcher not being able to throw too many pitches out of the strike zone (there is no magic number, but it is not one). This rule introduces a new idea--reaching base on one pitch, not batted into play, that is not otherwise significant and would not otherwise produce an out.  I agree with the commentators who wonder whether the source of this rule actually likes or understands baseball.

The uncaught third strike analogy does not work. A batter becomes a runner on an uncaught third strike because that third strike is an otherwise significant pitch that would have produced an out had the catcher done his job. Moreover, the batter does not always become a runner on an uncaught third strike--he is out on strikes if first base is occupied with less than two out (for fear of creating Infield Fly-like perverse incentives). So there is a logic to when a batter does or does not become a runner. The new rule does not correspond to that logic and it is facile to label this a simple "extension" of that rule.

The new rule gives batters choices about when to try to reach base, which is otherwise unheard of in the game. A batter who hits the ball in fair play cannot "choose" whether to run--he must run. A batter cannot "decline" a walk to continue batting. The batter's choice begins and ends with whether to swing a bat. A batter cannot even decline to become a runner on an uncaught third strike--he must run. The game does not otherwise recognize the concept of a batter advancing "at his own risk"--at his option rather than forced; the batter is always forced to run when certain things happen. There is no logic to introducing this one optional situation.

The stories I have read do not explain what happens on a ball  that goes to the backstop with force-outs in effect on the bases (e.g., bases loaded or 1st/2d) and less than two out. Under ordinary rules, the runners can advance at their own risk on what would be a wild pitch or passed ball and they would have to be tagged. But if the batter attempts to run to first, that would force the runners to advance. Does this play now become a force on the lead runner at home? And how will anyone--the runners or the umpires--know? What if the runners do not plan to run (thinking the ball did not roll far enough away from the catcher) but the batter does run--now the runners are forced to advance but were not expecting to. There is no other situation in which everyone does not know in advance of the play what is a force-out and what is not, because the batter usually does not have a choice between running or not--this potentially adds some confusion. Or the new rule is limited to non-force-out situations--again, for no good reason.

This rule is part of a package that the Atlantic League and MLB are piloting. Two others are liberalizing what constitutes a check swing and allowing two foul bunts with two strikes before it is a strikeout. Again, all are designed to help batters and create offense, although at the risk of prolonging games that are already (it is said) too long. There is no obvious logic.

Balls, strikes, and ground-rule doubles

In his opinion concurring in the judgment in Kisor v. Wilkie and arguing for overruling Auer deference, Justice Kavanaugh gave us this:

Umpires in games at Wrigley Field do not defer to the Cubs manager's in-game interpretation of Wrigley's ground rules. So too here.

I know analogies are only analogies and never exact. But they should be close enough to be helpful and this one is not. The problem is that the role of the Cubs and the role of an administrative agency, such as the VA, are not the same in one critical respect--an agency is charged with enforcing the regulations that it enacts, the Cubs are not.

An agency is charged with enforcing a statute, including making regulations to assist with that enforcement. Auer deference thus makes sense for the same reason that Chevron deference makes sense--give the enforcing agency some room to carry out its enforcement obligations, so long as its interpretations are reasonable. The Cubs' responsibility is to enact ground rules unique to their park--e.g., a ball that sticks in the outfield-wall ivy is a dead ball, the batter awarded second base, and runners awarded two bases--but not to enforce those ground rules, a power that rests with the umpires in the first instance.

It seems to me that this makes a difference, rendering the analogy pointless. There may be good reasons not to defer to an agency's interpretation of the regs it is charged with enforcing. One of those reasons is not that we do not defer to a different "agency's" interpretation of the regs it enacts but is not charged with enforcing.

Basketball trumps football for UConn

News that UConn is leaving the AAC to return to the Big East (now as the lone non-private-Catholic school and one of two non-Catholic schools, with Butler (ed.)) reminds me of this post about whether to preference basketball or football. The original Big East dissolved because the schools with football history and ambition wanted more, causing three early members (Pitt, Syracuse, and BC) to eventually leave for the ACC and the Catholic schools that did not want to have big-time football to break away (rebranding as the new Big East). UConn was the one original/early Big East school without a good home when the music stopped--still wanting big-time football but not good enough at it (or in a big-enough market) to attract the ACC or Big 12.

This move shows UConn prioritizing its non-football teams, especially men's and women's basketball. No team in the AAC could compete with UConn in women's basketball--the women never lost a conference game. And the AAC was a lower-profile conference from which it was harder for the men to build a national-championship-level team (although it is impossible to know if the problem was the conference or being unable to replace Jim Calhoun as coach). UConn plans to maintain FBS football, so it is considering options for that team--staying in the AAC as a football-only school (Navy holds the same status), becoming a football independent, or joining another conference as football-only, perhaps C-USA (which is where FIU plays).

But this is the rare example of a school doing something to benefit its basketball teams at the expense of its football team.

Pozen on video review and soccer

A nice takedown by David Pozen of how VAR alters the "rules" of soccer, for the worse. Pozen's argument echoes this piece on how body cameras affect policing.

Politics and sports, again

The Fresno Grizzlies, the Washington Nationals' AAA affiliate, is being criticized for a video it showed on the scoreboard during its Memorial Day game. Images were shown over the sound of Ronald Reagan's First Inaugural; when the speech turned to "enemies of freedom," the video showed Kim Jong-un, Fidel Castro, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and various protesters holding ANTIFA and "NO TRUMP NO KKK" signs. The team has apologized to Ocasio-Cortez specifically and to fans generally; the official team line is that the video was produced by a third party and found online (it seems to be available on You Tube) and no one with decisionmaking authority within the organization watched the whole thing.

This piece of an article, quoting Grizzlies General Manager Derek Franks is interesting:

Franks said it wasn’t a deliberate attack by the employee or the Grizzlies organization on the congresswoman.

“No, no, no, not at all,“ Franks said. “There was no ulterior motive. Our goal is never to mix baseball and politics and in this case, this was not an exception that was made. It was simply a careless mistake that we will make sure never happens again.”

First, bullshit as to the employee's intent. I can believe it was not a deliberate attack by the organization; I buy the excuse that no one with real authority in the organization watched the whole video. That is gross negligence, but not necessarily  deliberate. But some low-level lackey must have watched the entire thing and put it forward, probably figuring no one above him was going to check his work.

Second, bullshit on the team not wanting to mix baseball and politics. It is impossible to not mix baseball and politics because baseball is loaded with politics. Otherwise the Grizzlies never would have shown the video. To suggest otherwise defines politics to mean partisanship--the National Anthem or a patriotic video is not political because both parties sing and like it. This is nonsense (even allowing that a speech by Ronald Reagan is non-partisan). There is nothing wrong with mixing baseball and politics--we have been doing it for 100+years--although it makes sense to keep your political message as anodyne as possible to avoid situations like this. But own the political nature of it.

Third, I am less troubled by the inclusion of Ocasio-Cortez (although I appreciate  her complaint that things like this ramp-up the barrage of hate mail and threats she receives*) than I am by the inclusion of images of protesters. The idea that protesting--including protesting fascists, an unpopular President, and the KKK--makes someone an enemy of freedom to be defeated is, unfortunately, telling about where we have landed.

[*] And some morons cannot resist making things worse even when purporting to defuse the situation. Fresno Councilman Gary Bredefield called the video inappropriate, but could not stop himself from adding that socialism "is the exact opposite of our founding principles and traditional values"--in other words, that Ocasio-Cortez's political ideas, and thus Ocasio-Cortez, are un-American. Think that might set-off a few crazies with Twitter accounts?

Read more here: https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article230903884.html#storylink=cpy//www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article230903884.html#storylink=cpy

FIU Micro-Symposium: Infield Fly Rule Is in Effect (Updated)

I am happy to announce that FIU Law Review has published a micro-symposium on my book, Infield Fly Rule Is in Effect. We found nine people, in and out of legal academia, to write short comments, followed by my overall response. This was fun to put together.

I want to flag two contributions containing ideas that I really wish I had seen or thought of myself while I was writing the book, if only to respond to them.

Rob Nelson, a former minor-league pitcher and the founder of Big League Chew, introduced what he called the "Enfield Fly Rule." There are two versions, both designed to keep the basic protections of the Rule in place but denying to the defense any windfall from an unintentional drop. Under one version, an infield fly is a foul ball, so the batter is out if it is caught and the ball is foul if it is not caught. Under a second version, the ball is fair and live if caught (so the runners could tag-up), but a do-over if not caught (so it does not even count as a strike).

Spencer Waller (Loyola) identifies another non-baseball situation requiring a limiting rule--flopping in soccer and in basketball. Both fit the criteria I described for when a limiting rule is needed to deter the conduct and avoid an extraordinary benefit. What is interesting is that the solution both soccer and basketball have come up with is post-game sanctions of fines and/or suspensions should officials, upon reviewing plays on video, identify a flop. But these rules do nothing to sanction or deter the flop in the moment, thereby allowing the flopping player to gain the benefit of the flop (a penalty kick or red card in soccer, free throws or a turnover in basketball). So fines or suspensions may not provide sufficient deterrence against the conduct--a player may deem the flop worth it in the moment to allow his team to win, willing to deal with a fine or even one-game suspension after the fact.

Ballparks as public spaces and free speech

Interesting interview with architectural critic Paul Goldberger about his new book, Ballpark: Baseball in the American City, in which he describes baseball parks as "a key part of a whole category of public space in the American city." I have a thing for old ballparks, so I look forward to seeing the book.

Goldberger's conception of the ballpark as "public space" is key to my arguments about fan speech. Because the First Amendment is understood as making (publicly owned or controlled) public spaces open for expressive activities, at least so long as expression is not inconsistent with other uses of that space. The grandstand of a ballpark is a large speech zone--the whole point of the space is to allow fans to speak in the form of cheering, shouting, waving signs, etc.

On the need and scope of the Infield Fly Rule, Exhibit # 613

The Mariners turned a double play against the Angels on a fly ball to second base, on a play that illustrates two points about the need for and scope of the Infield Fly Rule.

The Angels had runner on first with one out. The runner, Brian Goodwin, broke for second; the batter, Justin Bour, popped the ball on the infield dirt near the second baseman. Goodwin ran back to first, while Bour, assuming the ball would be caught, began walking towards the dugout. Seeing this, one Mariners infielder yelled to his teammate to let the ball fall to the ground, which he did. He threw to second for the force on Goodwin (the third baseman was covering second on a shift against the lefty Bour), then a relay to first for the inning-ending double play on the non-running batter.

This demonstrates why baseball does not have or need a limiting rule for fly balls with a runner on first base only (so a force in effect at only one base). There would have been no chance for a double play on this play had Bour run (or even jogged) to first base. The Mariners might have chosen to let the ball fall to the ground to get the one out as a force on the speedy Goodwin while allowing Bour to reach first. But that is a relatively equitable exchange--one out for one baserunner, with a loss of speed on the basepaths. The Mariners gained the inequitable advantage of an inning-ending double play only because Bour did not do what he is expected to do--run to first base on a batted ball.

The video provides a great shot of why the Infield Fly Rule is necessary. Watch the play, imagining a second baserunner on second. We can see how easy it would have been for the second baseman to let the ball hit the ground and immediately make the first of one or two throws for a double play--had the fielder been quicker grabbing the ball off the ground, he could have made one throw to second base for a tag-the-runner-on-second/tag-the-base-to-force-the-runner-on-first double play. And we can see how screwed the baserunnners would be. Having run all the way back to first, Goodwin could not turn around and run 90 feet the other way in time to beat the throws; neither could a second baserunner. And this is with the defense being somewhat nonchalant on the play and a bit confused, because it was unexpected. Imagine life without the Infield Fly Rule, when the defense plans and practices for this play and is ready to pull it off.

Football or basketball? Boise State or Gonzaga?

A thought hatched while watching the first two rounds of March Madness and the various mid-major schools winning or playing competitive: If you run a university and want to make a name for yourself through athletics, would you rather have a good football program or a good basketball program and is it better to throw (a limited amount of) money into developing football or basketball?

The prevailing answer is football, because that draws more alumni interest and money. Schools such as UNC, Kansas, Duke, and Kentucky (or Indiana and UConn back in the day)--consistently great in basketball, generally non-competitive with the rare-blip exception in football--still believe that football success is essential. Jealousy of football contributed to the fall of the original Big East (which has been reborn as a basketball-first conference of Catholic schools, all technically east of somewhere). On the other hand, success in basketball seems easier to obtain--a basketball program costs less than a football program and success can be established by snagging two or three great players. And basketball comes without football's physical and moral baggage.

This question is especially salient for schools such as FIU--non-flagship public schools in a low-mid-major conference (comprised of similar schools and one former SWC school no one else wanted) with a finite amount of money to spend on this project. Consider:

Sustained football success caps out at competition in the conference, conference championships, and invitations to obscure, middish-December bowl games that no one watches against similar low-mid-major schools. The chance to make that leap is limited by the conference. And even if you make the leap, you remain locked out of the highest level of competing for a national championship, which will never look beyond the power conferences and Notre Dame. And all this requires a lot of money and a lot of player, who may suffer severe mental and physical problems because of the sport.

Sustained basketball success could mean consistent appearances in the NCAA Tournament, with early-round games watched or followed by many people and early-round victories offering more opportunities to play top-level teams on national tv. There is a chance, however remote, to play for a national championship. The Tournament Selection Committee is at least a bit more solicitous of non-power-conference schools, this year inviting multiple schools from some non-major conferences.

The question, in short: Is it better to be Boise State or Central Florida in football or Gonzaga or Wichita State or Towson or George Mason in basketball? The prevailing wisdom is the former; I would take the latter.

New flag controversy at Ole Miss, different result (so far)

Prior to a game played while about 100 pro-Confederacy protesters marched through Oxford and onto campus a few hundred feet from the arena, where they were met by about 50 counter-protesters.

At least so far, no one has criticized the players, not even the President. I am curious whether anyone will do so, given that this in specific response to what many people regard as a racist rally by a "hate group." This also highlights the changing meaning of using the flag to counter-speak--the message here was different in context than what Kaepernick did. Finally, we have clear state action here, unlike with the NFL; any attempt to punish the players would implicate First Amendment rights.

Ole Miss Coach Kermit Davis spoke about it after the game (video is embedded in some of the links above):

This was all about the hate groups that came to our community trying to spread racism and bigotry, you know, in our community. It’s created a lot of tension for our campus. I think our players made an emotional decision to show these people they’re not welcome on our campus. We respect our players freedom and ability to choose that.”

Davis' support is important because when was announced as coach last spring, he went out of his way to announce that he would create a program with a "respectful team that respects the flag and the National Anthem." Perhaps he now realizes that these protests are not disrespectful--or at least that it is not as simple as throwing around the word respect.

Frivolous lawsuits for me but not for thee

What are the odds that the New Orleans Saints season-ticket holders bringing these absurd lawsuits vote Republican and support litigation reform?

Ipse Dixit on the Infield Fly Rule

On Thursday, I did an interview with Brian L. Frye (Kentucky) for his Ipse Dixit Podcast on my new book on the infield fly rule. It was a fun conversation.

A different take on the purpose of the Infield Fly Rule

Baseball historian (and paralegal) Richard Hershberger for the fall 2018 issue of SABR's Baseball Research Journal argues that the infield fly rule developed from the difficulty of defining and determining when an infielder had caught the ball. He traces the 20-year evolution of the definition of catch, including the development and use of a "momentarily held" standard for only infield-fly situations (the batter is out if the infielder "momentarily held" the batted ball). This marked an "expansion" of when the batter is out, removing for baserunners, umpires, and infielders confusion over when the ball was caught and thus over whether they were forced to run. The ultimate Infield Fly Rule took this to its logical conclusion, but rendering the batter out no matter if, how, or how long the infielder touched the ball.

I am sorry this paper was not out while I was writing the book; I would have enjoyed discussing and responding to it in the book.

Infield Fly Rule is in Effect: The History and Strategy of Baseball's Most (In)Famous Rule

I am thrilled to announce that Infield Fly Rule is in Effect: The History and Strategy of Baseball's Most (In)Famous Rule has been published by McFarland Press. This brings together all the writing I have been doing on the subject since 2012, in multiple law review articles and on this blog, including a full eight seasons of an empirical study of the rule's invocation.

Makes a great gift for the baseball fan in your life. And there are four more days of Channukah and three weeks until Christmas.

Perfection, athletic skills, and sports

This Deadpsin piece defends the scoring system in gymnastics, under which Simon Biles won the all-around despite falling in two events (her routines have such a higher degree of difficulty than everyone else that even large point deductions for falls do not bring her back to the pack.

The piece includes the following:

Gymnastics is is an aesthetic, performance-based sport. As such, its ideas of winning and perfection are deeply intertwined. The history of the sport suggest that victory and perfection often go hand in hand, and that you can’t have the former without the latter.

Ideas about “perfection” exist in other sports too. There is such a thing as a perfect game in baseball, and they are always the same—a pitcher faces 27 batters and gets them all out in order. Football’s quarterback ratings are notably, ridiculous obscure, but an upper boundary exists and a few dozen quarterbacks have hit it over the years. Perfection is as rare in those disciplines as it is anywhere else. It’s special, but by no means a guarantee of victory. A pitcher can be perfect through nine and watch his bullpen blow it in the tenth; a quarterback putting up a perfect 158.3 has given his team a chance to win, but only a chance.

This captures my line between sport and non-sport. Performing skills perfectly or well is intertwined with victory in non-sports, because victory is determined by a judgment on the internal value and quality of those skills. Victory in sport is extrinsic, determined by the outcome of the performance of the skills and not by the skills themselves. This is true not only for the aesthetic quality of the skill (how nice the jump shot looks or how hard the pitcher throws), but the overall performance of those skills, which still may not produce victory.

Update on the Yiddishe World Series

We are three games into the 2018 World Series, featuring one Jewish player on each team. The first two games, both Red Sox wins, were quiet on this front. Ian Kinsler started both games at second for the Red Sox and was a combined 1-for-7 with an RBI. Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson did not start either game; he was one of the Dodgers' four top hitters, all left-handers, who did not start against lefty starters, although he entered both games late, going 0-for-3 combined.

Game Three, an 18-inning Dodger win and the longest game in World Series history, had the Great, the Good, and the Ugly for the Chosen People.

The great:

 

Sandy Koufax gave Dodger starter Walker Buehler a standing ovation as Buehler left the mound after pitching seven innings of two-hit shutout ball with nine strikeouts. Koufax is two months shy of 83 and looks as if he still could pitch.

 

 

The good:

Pederson gave the Dodgers a 1-0 lead with a home run in the third. But for a blown save, that would have been the game-winning hit.

The ugly:

Kinsler. Inserted as a pinch-runner in the 10th, Kinsler was almost picked-off first. He was called safe and the call upheld on replay review, although it was close. Kinsler then advanced to third on a single, but overslid third base and barely scrambled to get his foot back on the base before being tagged. He then was thrown out trying to score on a fly ball to center. The throw was off-line, up the third-base line. But Kinsler got such a slow break off third that he basically ran into the tag about fifteen feet before the plate.

Then, with the Sox up 2-1 with two out in the bottom of the 13th, Kinsler's wild throw on a grounder up the middle allowed the tying run to score and the game to continue for five more innings and a 14th-inning stretch. Game Four in about nine hours.

Infield Fly Rule as Mitzvah

On last week's edition of Tablet Magazine's Unorthodox podcast, a listener letter (read at the 1:07 mark) argues that baseball is the most Jewish sport, because it has "long tradition, weird and obscure rules that are subject to interpretation and doesn't change on a whim."

I like it, but it got me thinking: Which of the 613 Mitzvot is analogous to the Infield Fly Rule?

Historical baseball note

This may prove premature; if so, I apologize. The Red Sox and Dodgers, two of MLB's historic franchises, are each one game away from the World Series, so I had to look up whether they had ever met in the World Series in those long histories. The answer is in 1916, when Babe Ruth was the Red Sox star pitcher and the team from Brooklyn was known as the Robins. The broadcasters could have fun with this one.

Catch-up rule in baseball

I missed this paper by two game theorists (one at NYU) and some news stories about it. It proposes the following change to baseball's rules: A team that is leading gets only two outs in its turn at bat. The goal is to shorten games and to make games more competitive by giving trailing teams an opportunity to come back. It then applied the rule to all MLB games from 1967-2017, finding that it shortened the average game by about five outs (about 24 minutes) and the average score difference by more than one run. I am not sure what to think about this, although WSJ sports columnist Jason Gay is a fan (subscription required).

Back-to-back Jewish World Series

Baseball's final four is set and all four teams have one Jewish player--Ian Kinsler (Red Sox), budding superstar Alex Bregman (Astros), Joc Pederson (Dodgers), and Ryan Braun (Brewers). This means we are guaranteed a consecutive two-Jew World Series for the first time (previous two-Jew Series before last year were 2004, 1959, 1945, and 1940). Moreover, each is a regular starter for his team.

Truly baseball's new gildene elter. 

An infield fly rule for fake fair catches?

Last weekend, North Texas pulled off an amazing trick play, scoring a touchdown on a punt return by having the entire team (and everyone had to be involved) pretend the returner had called for a fair catch, then racing upfield when opposing players ran to the sideline believing the play was over. On Tuesday, there were conflicting reports as to whether the NCAA was considering outlawing the play. This New York Magazine piece by Will Leitch suggests a rule change may be necessary, with arguments sounding in the infield fly rule.

The infield fly rule (and similar rules) is necessary to address situations defined by four elements: Team A acts contrary to ordinary athletic expectations or fails to do what is ordinarily expected; that move produces an extraordinary cost-benefit advantage; Team B is powerless to counter the move in light of the game's rules, practices, and structure; and that imbalance creates a perverse incentive for Team A to try this often. Leitch's piece suggests that this is a situation requiring a limiting rule.

The key is the third element of Team B's powerlessness to counter the play in light of the game's structure. The punting team's counter is obvious--play to the whistle and hit the ball carrier unless you see the fair-catch signal and/or hear the whistle. But Leitch argues that the renewed focus on head injuries and player safety has changed that calculus. Tacklers no longer want to light-up a defenseless ball carrier and likely will draw a penalty for doing so, even if the hit was legal, because it "looks bad" and results in an injury. And it already can be hard for the punt coverage team to see and determine the fair catch signal.  North Texas' coaches essentially exploited that reluctance and that limitation on the tackler.

So while there is a counter, it is one that the tackling team will be unable to utilize without risking penalties on anything that looks close, making not a meaningful counter. Alternatively, if such hits are not going to be called, Team B gets its counter, but it is one the game's rulemakers will not want to encourage. This become a situation that gives one side a cost-benefit advantage (and thus a perverse incentive) and leaves the other powerless to respond, at least without creating other problems in the game's structure.

My first thought after this play was that it was a one-time, not-replicable event, because punt-coverage players now will be instructed to hit the returner unless they hear the whistle on the fair catch. Leitch's piece convinced me otherwise, that the cultural shift away from hitting defenseless players creates a limit on the tackling team and thus a control disparity that requires a limiting rule.