Chaos and merits

SCOTUS stayed the injunction barring enforcement of Trump's plan to bar trans people from the military. Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson dissent. No statement from anyone. This is, in essence, the death knell for trans people currently in the military--they will have been discharged before any final resolution.

The case demonstrates the dominant role that the merits play on the shadow docket. The balance of equities should weigh against a stay because every trans person will be discharged before this case can be resolved in two years, clearly a greater burden than the government having to abide the status quo (trans people serving) for a couple more years. And rejecting the stay is less likely to create chaos if the injunction were affirmed and the military had to re-enlist (or provide backpay) to all the people it discharged. But the majority must believe the order constitutionally valid, so that wins out--there is no good reason to make the government wait to enforce (what the Court plans to find to be) valid policy.

The other question is what this means for other anti-trans orders. Was the majority so certain of validity because this involved the military and the deference that receives? Or does this reflect a more general position within the majority that anti-trans discrimination is rational and permissible?

Someone (sorry Paul, don't remember who) wrote that the Court's approach to stays pending appeal changes with the administration--Biden's Administration cannot enforce anything until SCOTUS finally declares them valid; Trump's Administration can enforce everything until SCOTUS finally declares them invalid. There might be some truth to that, at least in effect.