Trans rights and social movements

I had interesting email exchanges with readers regarding my posts on trans issues. I wanted to lay out a few of the additional issues (unresolved) about social movements:

• MLK, Thurgood Marshall, and others went all-in during the '50s/'60s/'70s, which proved the right move. But would it have been wise, or successful, in the '30s/'40s. Where is the trans-rights movement now? I would have thought it was closer to the '50s after Obergefell; now it feels like March 1877.

• The Black Civil Rights Movement was the first modern mass civil-rights movement; it operated on a blank federal constitutional and statutory slate and challenged an existing legal scheme (Jim Crow laws in place for about 50 years). Other groups--women, disabled individuals, LGB--followed on that model, challenging long-standing laws that either were part of the historical firmament (women's inequality) or had never been considered (the way the world works against people with disabilities) And there was some degree of "if this historically disadvantaged groups enjoys protection, so should we."

    The trans-rights movement misaligns because it operates in mature constitutional system--it is copying prior movements rather than inventing them. Trans people seek to fit themselves into an existing statutory landscape and to be treated as their identified (rather than assigned-at-birth) gender; states have enacted new laws targeting the group after it pushed for recognition or room to operate within the existing regime. For example, hormone therapy exists, but states now prohibit one group from obtaining that therapy for one purpose.

• There is an interesting order-of-operations problem--does government enact restrictions when groups begin advocating or do groups advocate against existing laws. The former seems more targeted and more cruel. It seems the former is at work for trans people--new laws enacted explicitly and expressly to prevent them from doing what they sought to do or hoped to achieve under existing laws and systems. By contrast, MLK moved against existing Jim Crow laws; Southern states doubled down on defending those laws but did not enact new laws. And no one attempted to enact new express prohibitions on disabled people. On the other hand, states enacted Jim Crow in response to Reconstruction. It probably depends on the moment in history in which one looks.

• Movement strategy is historically determined. It is harder to tell Group M to bide its time (especially within our modern understanding of the harms its members suffer) when Groups A through L have already established their rights. So MLK had to bide his time in the 1940s because he had nothing to build on; trans activists have 80 years.

• Size matters. Trans people represent less than 1 % of the population, compared with women representing 1/2 the population and Black people 10-15 %. It is easier for the state to target such a small group (obviously), more difficult to create a critical mass to support it, and easier for voters and others to say "why do you care so much" about issues that do not affect them. It thus is rhetorically and politically important to turn the numbers issue, to place the shame on those who would bully such a tiny group.