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Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Annual sports election predictors

I have thoughts on the election, but too jumbled to and disorganized to write in detail. I began with mixed feelings--thrilled that Biden had won, crushed that he will face a GOP Senate that will undermine his presidency at every turn (has any President gone a full term without appointing one judge?). I am concerned and (mostly) surprised that so many GOP officials have gotten on board and are amplifying Trump's nonsense. This allows the Senate to bolster its planned obstruction with a "stolen election" narrative--Biden is an illegitimate president not because people voted against Trump rather than for Biden, but because Biden "won" only because of fraud. The Senate thus does its patriotic duty by not cooperating with this illegitimate official until he can be voted out of office.

So let's look at something lighter: How sports predicted the election.

World Series Was Right: The NL's Dodgers won the World Series, which has meant a Democratic President in 18 of the past 29 elections, 13 of the 19 since the end of World War II, and 5 out of 6 since 2000.

Washington NFL Team Was Wrong: The Washington Professional Football team won its final home game before the election, beating the Dallas Cowboys 25-3 on Sunday, which has predicted the incumbent party retaining the White House in 17 of 21 elections (although wrong the last three). Ironically, Washington beat the team owned by Jerry Jones, Trump's closest friend and political ally among NFL owners and, stories suggest, a big reason why the league reacted as it did to Colin Kaepernick.

Harvard-Yale Will Not Play: The other presidential-election year they did not play was 1944, when a Democrat won.

Ending Sports Droughts: I wrote that this tends to favor Republicans. I am not sure how to categorize this year's election. The Dodgers won their first World Series in 32 years, but I am not sure if that qualifies as historically long when we have almost 120 years of World Series and this is an historic franchise winning its six World championship.

One City/Multiple Champions: The Series had one unique piece of intrigue--the winner would give its city a second 2020 championship. The Dodgers gave Los Angeles its second title, following the Lakers winning the NBA championship. Had the Rays won, they would have given Tampa its second title, following the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup. So this got me thinking about correlations between presidential elections and single-city/multiple-champions. Prior to this year, this had happened in seven presidential elections dating to 1927. The Republican prevailed in six (Hoover in 1928, Eisenhower in 1952, Eisenhower in 1956, H.W. Bush in 1988, W. in 2000,* and W. in 2004), the Democrat in one (Truman in 1948). Biden makes it GOP in 6 out of 8.

[*] The  Yankees won the World Series while the Jersey Devils won the Stanley Cup. Whether to count this depends on how we regard New Jersey sports teams. I leave that question for others.

Posted by Howard Wasserman on November 10, 2020 at 08:58 AM in Howard Wasserman, Law and Politics, Sports | Permalink

Comments

This unhinged take is one of my favorite "Nothing Trump Does is Legitimate" screeds:

https://time.com/4656196/scotus-neil-gorsuch-geoffrey-stone/

Money quote: "Short of that, every decision of the Court decided by a margin of five-to-four with Neil Gorsuch in the majority will justifiably be castigated as fundamentally illegitimate."

And, of course, when discussing the legitimacy crisis that Democrats put into motion, we can't let them get away with, "Well that was just shock from the election". They played the illegitimate tune just one week ago:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524259-pelosi-amy-coney-barrett-an-illegitimate-supreme-court-justice

So...if we're keeping track, according to high-raking Democrats and professors at elite law schools, Trump was illegitimate, Gorsuch is illegitimate and, as a result, any 5-4 decision also illegitimate, and Barrett is illegitimate.

For a group who's concerned about GOP saying Biden is illegitimate, y'all sure did throw that term around a lot in the last four years. Not only was the presidency illegitimate according to an absolute legend and elder statesman in the Democratic Party, but the Supreme Court is totally illegitimate as well.

It's just strange that you'd expect any cooperation from the GOP.

Welcome to the legitimacy crisis. I get to rub it in because I was yelling about the dangers of declaring entire branches illegitimate while it was going on.

Posted by: thegreatdisappointment | Nov 10, 2020 12:00:09 PM

"Biden is an illegitimate president..."

Y'all started it:

John Lewis: "I don't see this president-elect as a legitimate president."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/13/john-lewis-doesnt-think-donald-trump-is-a-legitimate-president/

Posted by: thegreatdisappointment | Nov 10, 2020 11:35:05 AM

Actually, "you will eventually be rewarded" in my last post should be changed to "you will not experience any negative consequences."

Also, I fully expect to see a rise of Second Amendment sanctuary states.

Posted by: TJM | Nov 10, 2020 9:41:05 AM

I am not surprised that the GOP is mostly supporting Trump's antics. The past four years demonstrated that if you resist hard enough and at every turn, you will eventually be rewarded. Since 71 million people voted for Trump, what do they have to lose?

Posted by: TJM | Nov 10, 2020 9:38:53 AM

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