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Monday, October 26, 2020

Goal Gradient Effect & Covid Vaccine

My in-house behavioral scientist, On Amir, explains in today in this news article the “goal gradient effect" in relation to the proximity of a vaccine, health policy, and safe social behavior:  "The closer you are (or think you are) to completing a task, the more motivated you are to stick it through for the reward. In this case, that reward would be some semblance of a return to normalcy. How people react, he says, will depend on whether public officials frame the rollout of a vaccine as an instant triumph or a series of steps. For instance, making clear a vaccine would be rolled out in phases." 

Posted by Orly Lobel on October 26, 2020 at 01:02 AM | Permalink

Comments

Is the first shot or round of vaccination, wouldn't work well or revealed to be unsafe. That can become hell.

Posted by: Mike | Oct 26, 2020 10:58:40 AM

Here:

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-has-mutated-and-appears-to-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds/2319177/

Posted by: El roam | Oct 26, 2020 6:57:33 AM

Just to add very important disastrous scenario:

More spread and span that virus has, more chances for deadly mutations(already adopted some). That thing, can complicate things around.

I shall leave links later....

Thanks

Posted by: El roam | Oct 26, 2020 6:44:49 AM

Great article. It is at the same time, realistic, and optimistic. That is good. But, other scenarios here may be introduced, intervene, or prevail:

First, many, or too many Americans oppose that vaccine. I quote from Gallup:

"But many Americans appear reluctant to be vaccinated, even if a vaccine were FDA-approved and available to them at no cost. Asked if they would get such a COVID-19 vaccine, 65% say they would, but 35% would not."

Here:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx

Now, if the first shot or round of vaccination, wouldn't work well or revealed to be unsafe. That can become hell. Increasing the concern about such doctrine at first place. Not to forget, many Americans, still live in the past in this regard, and remember the "Cutter incident" for example.The failure of the Polio vaccine at the time. Here I quote from Wikipedia:

" On April 12, 1955, following the announcement of the success of the polio vaccine trial, Cutter Laboratories became one of several companies that was recommended to be given a license by the United States government to produce Salk's polio vaccine. In anticipation of the demand for vaccine, the companies had already produced stocks of the vaccine and these were issued once the licenses were signed.

In what became known as the Cutter incident, some lots of the Cutter vaccine—despite passing required safety tests—contained live polio virus in what was supposed to be an inactivated-virus vaccine. Cutter withdrew its vaccine from the market on April 27 after vaccine-associated cases were reported.

The mistake produced 120,000 doses of polio vaccine that contained live polio virus. Of children who received the vaccine, 40,000 developed abortive poliomyelitis (a form of the disease that does not involve the central nervous system), 56 developed paralytic poliomyelitis—and of these, five children died from polio.[2] The exposures led to an epidemic of polio in the families and communities of the affected children, resulting in a further 113 people paralyzed and 5 deaths.[3] The director of the microbiology institute lost his job, as did the equivalent of the assistant secretary for health. Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare Oveta Culp Hobby stepped down. Dr William H. Sebrell, Jr, the director of the NIH, resigned.[4]"

Here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutter_Laboratories#Cutter_incident

And finally, the whole world of course. Travelling became routine in this world. To vaccinate effectively, the whole entire population of the world, that is hell of a task(for too many reasons). And one thing can be said about that pandemic indeed:

Never ever, so few infected so many. That can become ongoing hell.

Thanks

Posted by: El roam | Oct 26, 2020 6:25:22 AM

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