Good News for Whom?

As Howard points out, we just got the circuit split that Justice Ginsburg recently said in a University of Minnesota speech would trigger U.S. Supreme Court intervention in same-sex marriage, which has been blatantly lacking up to now.     

This Supreme Court has recently found in favor of federal recognition of same-sex marriage, but dodged making much more law than this because of a standing issue in the other same-sex case.  A previous Supreme Court characterized marriage as not a question of federal law, but this has been discounted by other courts and by Justice Ginsburg herself in oral argument in Perry.

So, now that there’s a circuit split, will the U.S. Supreme Court find constitutional support for the proponents or the opponents of same-sex marriage—which side should be popping open the bubbly tonight to celebrate the circuit split?