News from the Campaign Trail

Its great to be back on Prawfs, and it is also great to be at ground zero for Election 2012 (well ground zero today at least).  Florida is a great state to live in if one is interested in politics.  It is a swing state; it is the first big primary state (no offense to New Hampshire or SC);  and we will always have Bush v. Gore.  What other state can claim that little bit of notoriety? 

The results of tonight’s primary should be interesting.  Gingrich won South Carolina by a landslide but has crashed and burned in the week and a half since.  In light of his slipping poll numbers, Gingrich has vowed to put a colony on the moon; pledged not to participate in future debates if moderated by journalists; and has been outspent 5 to 1 in Florida by the Romney campaign.  I suspect that it is this last factor that will determine the winner of today’s primary, which according to one group is the most negative primary fight on record.  

And this is true notwithstanding history to the contrary. 

In 2008, Romney lost Florida to McCain (36% to 31%), another candidate who the Republican base was also lukewarm about.  Romney is likely to do much better this time around (current polls have Romney beating Gingrich 43% to 31%), and it will be interesting to see what a Romney win tonight will mean for the race going forward.    

I can tell you what a Gingrich win will mean however – litigation.  Litigation over the RNC’s decision to penalize Florida of half its delegates for moving its primary up, and litigation over Florida’s allocation of delegates, which is currently winner-take-all and in contravention of RNC rules (which mandate proportionality for delegates awarded before a certain date).  If the race continues and Gingrich is able to build up a sizable number of delegates in those states that do have proportional allocation, then expect a challenge to the results of the Florida primary at some point in the near future. 

At the end of the day, I just don’t think that Gingrich will go quietly, despite the hopes of many in the Republican establishment.   In any event, I am looking forward to the next month and engaging with the Prawfs community on some of these issues.