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Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Hello and Predictions?

First, I want to thank Dan for the opportunity to guest blog here this month.  I’ll admit it:  I came to Prawfs for the meat market hiring threads, but I stayed for the engaging and insightful commentary—okay, and the occasional fights that break out in the comments. 

My scholarship focuses on the intersection of legislative process, politics, and the law, and I have a few ideas that I’ll be posting about this month.  But, as a new professor, I’ll probably also want to talk about things that have occurred to me over the past few months as I prepared syllabi and lectures, answered students’ questions, and wrote and graded exams. 

But before I get to any of that, I thought I’d ask if anyone has anyone predictions for today’s GOP Iowa caucus.  I spent six months in Iowa in 2003-2004 working for John Kerry’s campaign, but in that endeavor, I pretty much only interacted with Democrats and other “likely caucus-goers.”  While I developed a strong appreciation for how Iowa Democrats think and act, that experience probably left me even less equipped to speculate about Republican caucus-goers.  With that caveat in mind, I think that Rick Santorum will win, followed by Ron Paul, and then Mitt Romney.  What say you?

Posted by Michael Teter on January 3, 2012 at 10:50 AM | Permalink


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For fear of being tarnished a flip flopper, I'm sticking with my original prediction. I'm just going to redefine "win" to mean post-caucus media coverage.

Posted by: Michael Teter | Jan 4, 2012 12:32:43 PM

I predict Romney will win by 8 votes.

Posted by: Orin Kerr | Jan 4, 2012 12:22:13 PM

fivethirtyeight predicts Santorum, against his own model: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Posted by: Debbie Borman | Jan 3, 2012 9:37:05 PM

I think you're correct about Santorum winning--he has surged soon enough to rise to the top but not soon enough to be brought back down by attacks on his record. His fall will occur after the caucuses. Paul, on the other hand, has suffered from enough questions about his record that I think his support will slip enough to place him behind Romney. He'll also suffer to the extent that the anti-Romney vote coalesces around Santorum.

Posted by: David Orentlicher | Jan 3, 2012 7:53:09 PM

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