Next Up in the GCC Demolition Derby

[A brief sidebar:  Many thanks to Dan for inviting me to participate.  I hope that the Blog Muse cooperates during this brief guest visit and readily offer my admiration to those who find the time and inspiration to post on a regular basis.]

Scholars frequently employ data about where the impacts of global climate change (GCC) will be felt most acutely as a basis for explaining or justifying differing jurisdictional responses to GCC.  Cass Sunstein and Eric Posner, for example, have argued that the developing world should pay the United States to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in part because many developing countries are projected to suffer more devastating GCC harms than the United States, see “Climate Change Justice” (August 2007). U of Chicago Law & Economics, Olin Working Paper No. 354, http://www.law.uchicago.edu/Lawecon/workingpapers.html.  And a number of legal scholars have suggested that one of the reasons that – contrary to a bedrock theory of environmental law, the tragedy of the commons – some states and localities in the United States have acted in meaningful ways to reduce GHG emissions in the absence of federal mandate is because those early actor jurisdictions are, similarly, more vulnerable than other areas in the United States to GCC impacts, see e.g. Kirsten Engel and David Adelman , Adaptive Federalism: The Case Against Reallocating Environmental Regulatory Authority. 

It is interesting to think about this general issue (the relationship between projected vulnerability to negative impacts from GCC and willingness to reduce GHG emissions) with reference to a new study detailing some projected domestic impacts of GCC in the United States.  The study, Climate Change Science Program report “Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3): The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States”  informs that:

U.S. ecosystems and natural resources are already being affected by climate system changes and variability. It is very likely that the magnitude and frequency of ecosystem changes will continue to increase during this period, and it is possible that they will accelerate.  As temperature rises, crops will increasingly experience temperatures above the optimum for their reproductive development, and animal production of meat or dairy products will be impacted by temperature extremes. Management of Western reservoir systems is very likely to become more challenging as runoff patterns continue to change. Arid areas are very likely to experience increases erosion and fire risk. In arid ecosystems that have not coevolved with a fire cycle, the probability of loss of iconic, charismatic megaflora such as Saguaro cacti and Joshua trees will greatly increase.  Executive Summary at 3.

Notably, the study, which is focused primarily on existing GCC impacts and those in the nearer-term (25-50 years), finds that the most dire GCC impacts accrue to some areas, groups, and industries that can (very) broadly be generalized as suspicious of GCC science and control measures.   Farmers face predictions of increasing crop failure, weed infestation, crop disease, and reduced herbicide effectiveness.  Ranchers and other livestock operators face predictions of increased disease pressures on animals (as a result of earlier springs and warmer winters, which will allow proliferation and higher survival rates of pathogens and parasites) and animal mortality.  The interior West (already water-limited) faces possible water shortages and decreases in stream flow and water quality, as well as increases in forest fires, insect outbreaks, and tree mortality.

Science and ecology have given rise to powerful synergies for addressing environmental harms in the past –for example, the hunter’s group Ducks Unlimited was a powerful force in achieving greater wetlands protection.  Trout Unlimited already appears to be thinking about GCC impacts on trout.  It will be interesting to see if this most recent data showcasing the impacts of GCC in particular on western water users, farmers and ranchers gives rise to a powerful new voice for meaningful GHG controls.