Sports and Statistical Inequity

Sports are supposed to be played on an even playing field.  For example, every team should have an equal chance of making it to the playoffs.  But there is one league that defies this logic.  In this league, 20 teams have a 20% chance of winning their division, 4 teams have a 25% chance, and 6 teams have a 16.7% chance.  In addition, 14 teams have a 7% chance of winning a wild card entry to the playoffs, while 16 teams have only a 6.25% chance of winning it.

What league is this?

Major League Baseball.  The National League has 16 teams; the American League 14.  Most divisions have five teams, but the American League West has only four teams, and the National League Central has six teams.

This uneven distribution is necessary because of the limited interleague play in baseball.  Each league needs to have an even number of teams, so that teams can play within their league.  Since there are 30 teams, the leagues have to be split unevenly.  (That's why during interleague play there's always two left-over National League teams playing each other.)

The Milwaukee Brewers bore the brunt of this change from explansion -- they switched from the American to the National League, and ended up in the crowded Central.  But the switch obviously helped American League teams and hurt National League teams, particularly the Cardinals, Astros, Reds, Pirates, and the cursed Cubs.  These teams have almost a 10% less chance of winning their division than the Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and the "Moneyball" Athletics.

Why would any team or any sport allow for this unfairness?  I'm sure there was some discussion of it at the time of realignment, and there are occasional posts about it on the Internet.  But in a league newly obsessed with the smallest statistical advantages, you would think that these glaring differences would get more attention.

Of course, there are other factors which may dwarf these differences.  The American League has the Yankees and the Red Sox, the two teams with the biggest payrolls.  The National League Central has been a weak division recently; last year the Cardinals won the division with a 83-78 record -- the worst of any division.  In addition, the American League suffered under an unfair (14-12) imbalance prior to 1994.

So is the current breakdown unfair?  Statistically, it is undoubtedly unfair.  But perhaps the relative silence on this issue means that the reality is somewhat grayer.