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Saturday, July 22, 2017

Update on late-game fouling and the "Elam Ending"

In April I wrote about the proposal from Nick Elam to eliminate late-game fouling basketball by making the end of the game untimed and playing to a target score (+7 of the leading team when the clock is turned off in the final minute). The Basketball Tournament implemented the Elam Ending for its 16-team pre-tournament; it now reports on the results--there was no late-game fouling, some exciting comebacks, and the final time time lasted between two and five minutes of game time.

Posted by Howard Wasserman on July 22, 2017 at 04:13 PM in Howard Wasserman, Sports | Permalink

Comments

Anything to improve the unwatchable, lame ending of current NBA and NCAA games. This is a GIANT improvement

Posted by: Anon | Jul 22, 2017 5:23:50 PM

Anything to improve the unwatchable, lame ending of current NBA and NCAA games. This is a GIANT improvement

Posted by: Anon | Jul 22, 2017 5:23:51 PM

It is great to hear that it worked out well, I hope it is tested in more tournaments. Now, if only someone could invent a way to get rid of the 3-pt shot.

Posted by: Jr | Jul 23, 2017 4:14:11 PM

If this sort of play is your goal, why not just eliminate the clock for the entire game? It then just becomes like games on the playground: first team to 20 baskets (or whatever arbitrary number you choose) wins. If you want to keep the free throws and/or 3-point shots in the game, then make it the first team to 60 points wins.

Why do the rules need to change at the end? (I'll admit, however, that I thought hack-a-Shaq was a sound strategy.)

Posted by: HokieEngineer | Jul 23, 2017 10:13:17 PM

Why does it have to be all or nothing? There are benefits to the sport being timed (mainly that games would take too long and the natural structure in the game's organization would be lost), so that is the general rule. Many believe that those benefits are outweighed in the final minutes because intentional fouling is the only way a team can come back. So this rule seeks to redraw the balance only in that small period in which timing leads to other problems. But taking away the clock in the 2-minute window in which fouling is a problem does not mean we should eliminate the clock for the other 46 minutes, when we don't have that problem.

Posted by: Howard Wasserman | Jul 23, 2017 11:20:49 PM

It's an interesting solution, but I wonder how this could end up impacting game play. We have to presume that teams would recruit and practice with the tournament structure in mind. For instance, this might end up favoring teams with fewer superstar athletes but a stronger bench. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but I think we should be careful of how the game might be altered when changing the rules to make it more exciting for the audience.

Another approach (though only during the regular season; this wouldn't work for tournaments) would be a modified-win/modified-loss point structure for games that end with a very small margin of victory. Say a team wins by 5 or fewer points, they are awarded 0.6 match wins, while the loser receives 0.2.

I may be misunderstanding the dynamics of the intentional foul, but it seems to increase both the chances of a comeback, as well as the chance for a runaway victory by the team that started ahead (assuming they make their free throws). The chance to receive some points from a modified loss could discourage teams from intentionally fouling and potentially losing those fractional wins. Meanwhile, it would encourage the winning team to continue playing aggressively to receive a full win, and presumably this aggressive play would open up more opportunities for the trailing team to catch up.

Posted by: Derek Tokaz | Jul 24, 2017 9:16:00 AM

I'd like to see data on whether the EE gives an advantage to the team that's leading before the untimed section. We'd test that by seeing how often the leading team wins using EE vs without EE. My guess is that EE would give the leading team an advantage, so then the question is whether doing that is worth the time saved for viewers.

Posted by: RaffD | Jul 27, 2017 11:35:49 AM

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