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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The Edwards Endorsement
So Edwards is going to endorse Obama. The initial news coverage makes it sound as if Edwards decided on the endorsement now that it is sufficiently likely that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. But I wonder if there was another part to the calculus--perhaps Edwards' sees his leverage with the Obama campaign as being particularly good at this moment. It would seem to have peaked with the North Carolina primary, but Edwards' voter demographic strength is precisely Obama's increasingly apparent voter demographic weakness: white, working class voters.
For whatever reason Obama has trouble getting white, working class votes--Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and now West Virginia. Obama got a mere 26% of the West Viriginia vote. West Virginia voters have access to the same national news media as anyone else and have to know that Clinton is not a particularly viable candidate at this point. But they still went out and voted for her (or alternatively voted against Obama). Heck, Edwards got 8% of the West Virginia vote and he isn't even running any more.
Edwards' appeal to white, working-class voters makes him a good complement to Obama. He also doesn't doesn't overshadow Obama and his presence isn't a reminder of Obama's relative youth and inexperience, the way say, a long-serving governor or senator would be. I wonder if this is part of a move towards Edwards as a running-mate--Edwards was able to strike the deal when Obama's white working class voter problem became all too obvious after West Virginia. But that's just my idle speculation.
Posted by Adam Levitin on May 14, 2008 at 06:38 PM | Permalink
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From the NYTimes Caucus Blog: "[P]rivately, [Edwards] told aides that he would consider the role of vice president, and favored the position of attorney general, which would appeal to his experience of decades spent in courtrooms as a trial lawyer in North Carolina; and his desire to follow in the footsteps of Robert F. Kennedy, one of his heroes." Having supported Edwards in both presidential nominating cycles, I'm hoping that he shies away from a VP spot on the ticket and actively pursues the position of Attorney General. First, he's already run for vice president, so I'm not sure giving him that spot would be very effective, despite his obvious campaigning skills. Second, his views on issues he would confront as AG are already part of the public record, so that there'd at least be the expectation he would be (more) independent while still fitting within a Democratic philosophy. (And this might go some way toward repairing the Justice Department's reputation.) Third, perhaps cynically, as a former senator and affable guy he should have some easy support during Senate confirmation hearings.
Posted by: Adam Richardson | May 14, 2008 7:16:17 PM
The notion that Obama has a white voter problem has been refined. He actually has an Appalachian voter problem. The almost always right Josh Marshall's analysis is the instant gold standard.
"So what is it about this region?
Let me offer a series of overlapping explanations. First, some basic demographics. It's widely accepted that Hillary Clinton does better with older voters, less educated voters and white voters. These demographics perfectly match West Virginia -- and, more loosely, the entire Appalachian region. A few key points from tonight's exit polls demonstrate the point: 4 out of 10 voters were over 60 years of age. 7 out of 10 lacked a college degree -- the highest proportion of any electorate in the country. And 95% of the electorate was white."
Posted by: Bart | May 15, 2008 9:47:33 AM
The Edwards timing for the Obama endorsement is impeccable. Politicos are missing the most important result from Edwards' endorsment of Obama: It ends the Michigan and Florida impasse! With the Edwards endorsment, Obama can now rightly claim his (and the other endorsing candidates') votes in both Michigan and Florida, resulting in the ability to seal a deal in which Clinton and Obama are virtually tied in both the distribution of delegates and the popular vote. For Florida, Clinton got 50% of the vote, some 871,000 votes; adding his endorsers' totals to Obama's, Clinton is balanced by 48% of the vote (Obama = 33%, Edwards = 14%, Richardson = 1%), and 843,000 votes (Obama = 576,000, Edwards = 252,000, Richardson = 15,000). For Michigan, Clinton got 55% of the vote, some 328,000 voters, balanced by 45% of the anti-Clinton uncommitted vote, some 266,000 voters. Under the proportional distribution of delegates rule of the Democratic Party, Clinton will gain very few additional delegates, and she gains very little in the popular vote either. That means that Florida and Michigan will not be the "game changer" that Clinton needs to wrest the nomination under any scheme from Obama. Given this outcome, Edwards should be able to name his reward for ending the Clinton travail.
Posted by: Ray Fuller | May 15, 2008 1:09:34 PM
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